But then you've really got to have your finger on the pulse for the short term, risky, quick, big gains.
You've got to know what artists are hot, who's on the cover of Rolling Stone and what are they holding, what are they playing on tour, etc.
Perfect example... Everyone knows that when Billy Joe Armstrong starting busting out his '56 LP Jr (and the rumors started circulating he was buying them up at a hefty clip), they shot WAY up in value. I know a few guys who made a hefty profit off of that surge...
But here's a lesser-known example, one upon which I'll admit I personally capitalized. There were fifteen minutes when Sum41 were white-hot... and one of the rather unique-looking guitars they were using at gigs was featured in their press shoots and magazine write-ups. That guitar was a S-1 (first cousin to the marauder). ALSO at the same time, Dave Grohl and the dude form QOTSA started heavily using Marauders and S-1s. I was watching this unfold... I'd see interviews in the guitar rags, live footage on TV... I had a good hunch that this Marauder/S1 thing would blow up... and sure enough, it did... for one hot minute. I was lucky enough to have three S-1's and a Marauder at my disposal... I can't honestly say I took advantage of anything, aside from assessing a hot situation. I simply put them on Ebay and let the people take it from there financially...
I will tell you this, though... since that one hot minute where I unloaded those four guitars, I have NEVER seen either model fetch even HALF as much as they did during that one minute. As far as I'm concerned, I feel I did better than my buddies who sat for years on their Juniors. I sat for maybe a few months on those Marauders, and if you were to scale down the profits of the LPs vs S-1's to simple ratios, I definitely came out on top... its all in how you look at it.
Some "investments" are obvious. When you had a band like The White Stripes blow up, you plain 'ol know whats going to happen. But forget those Valco cheeseboxes for a moment... and let me throw out that a few years ago, a constituent of mine in the Gretsch game mentioned that he'd never seen so many Duo Jets and Firebirds fly through his hands as when JW made a switch over. Of course also at that time Elliot Easton had joined up with The New Cars and was also sporting his 3pu DC Jet... its all a matter of who's being hyped, and who's playing what.
(I won't lie... I haven't done this in a few years, but I'm actually watching a trend right now... and I'm crossing my fingers that I'm right.)
Sometimes you go wrong, though. I seriously thought that Magnatones would be the next hot commodity... they got REAL hot when the knowledge that the early MK I-V series was designed by Paul Bigsby... and prices SOARED for a moment when this was misinterpreted and people believed/were told that Bigsby actually BUILT them... but this lasted a week when the truth set in that he was only the designer. I thought there might be another surge when the Paul Bigsby book came out, but there was barely a flutter. (A side note, the Magnatone Mk V is one of the hottest guitars I've ever played... oh, what I'd give to get my hands on one.) I still hold out hope for Magnatone... all it really takes is a few quirky, big-name musicians to start gigging out with them, and you've got a hot-guitar-minute... Hey, maybe Elvis Costello will bust out his Magnatone Typhoon again and I'll luck out!!
There's lots of AWESOME, American-made little-known brands out there... and sooner or later any one of them will get hot for a moment. Elvis with his Typhoon... Billy Gibbons could, for some unheardof reason, start slinging his Alamo Fiesta again... hell, who knows, maybe Page or Clapton will drag their Dano's out of retirement!! Christ, look how hot Chris Issac made the Harmony Espanada/Silvertone 1446!!... I mean... Chris Issac? Makes a guitar popular?!?!? hahaha... It can seriously come from anywhere... whomever's the flavor of the month.
Just like financial investing, you need to do your "market research." Anyone can trade/flip Gibsons and Fenders. (Just like any part-time teller can climb the ropes at First National bank and set you up with CD and bands.) You've got to know the history, you've got to know whats cool in the guitar sub-culture (that is, whats bubbling just beneath the surface), and you've be able to read the trends, to be aware of what the big dogs are playing... and you've got to be willing to take a hit now and again when you read the trends wrong.Statistics: Posted by Michael Ambrose — Wed Jul 15, 2009 11:41 pm
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