I honestly don't think you'll see the late-70's/80's shredder guitars shoot up in value the way you see pre-CBS Fenders and Gibsons. Sure, there's the baby-boomer nostalgia element... but the other end of that is that each of those guitars was a hand-crafted piece... not CNC-machined, but hand-crafted... like a Chippendale dresser or a Tiffany lamp, or, more appropriately, a Stradivarius violin. I don't even think you'll find a first-gen neck-thru Dinky fetch what a "Golden Age" guitar will fetch down the road.
You'll never see a guitar boom like you see in today's market.
When the current generation of shredders hits middle-age-hood, you'll undoubtedly see a big bubble for JEM's and Dinky's and (American) ESP's... but I only expect a few select instruments to rise from this breed the way golden-age guitars have.
You'll see pointy guitars with their control plate signed and numbered by John Suhr or Rudy Pensa blow up to Pre-CBS proportions... some PRS 10-tops and one offs will shoot up there... maybe some Zon or pre-Gibson Tobias pieces...
But don't forget that at the same time that these guitars are getting up there, that names like Wayne Charvel and Grover Jackson are going to be going up against names like Chris Flemming, Yuri Shishkov, and Tom Anderson. You can't neglect the fact that while the shredders may have started the high-end customization movement, the big boys also got in that game.
Another point to consider... If you're suggesting that each generation will have its own corresponding boom, why haven't we seen custom guitars from the 70's shoot up in value as THAT generation gets nostalgic and comes into money? These were terrific guitars, often hand-numbered, well-crafted pieces... You've got Alembics, you've got Travis Beans, you've got the Kramer DMZ series and the early Stu Spector work... Granted they have appreciated, but not to the extent of the Golden Era guitars.
Bottom line is that nostalgia will only play a small factor in the longevity of the collectibility of a particular guitar. Ten years from now, a Silvertone 1413L will in no way in hell fetch more than $500... I have no idea how these are selling for this much now!... Golden Era guitars (even second-fiddles from this era like Gretsch or Guild) will always and forever reign supreme in the vintage market.
(By the way... I'm only twenty-seven.)Statistics: Posted by Michael Ambrose — Mon Jul 20, 2009 4:47 pm
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